Theorem Condorcet Paradox
theorem staged

Condorcet Paradox

Theorem. There exists a preference profile on three voters and three alternatives that has no Condorcet winner ([[social_choice.voting.condorcet_winner]]).

In Lean: SocialChoice.Voting.condorcet_paradox_possible. The explicit witness is the cyclic Condorcet cycle profile over $\mathrm{Fin}\ 3$:

voter first second third
0 0 1 2
1 1 2 0
2 2 0 1

Pairwise majority is cyclic ($0 \succ_{\text{maj}} 1$, $1 \succ_{\text{maj}} 2$, $2 \succ_{\text{maj}} 0$), so no alternative beats both of the others.

The Lean proof builds this profile via a small rank function on $\mathrm{Fin}\ 3$ and case-analyses the three would-be Condorcet winners $a \in \{0, 1, 2\}$, using fin_cases and explicit $\mathrm{MajorityPrefers}$ counts.

Interpretation

Aggregating individual preferences by pairwise majority does not always produce a transitive social ranking. The Condorcet paradox is the canonical demonstration that majority rule alone is not enough to escape Arrow-style impossibilities; it motivates positional rules (Borda [[social_choice.voting.borda_score]], plurality [[social_choice.voting.plurality_score]]) and tournament solutions (Copeland, Slater) that always select some alternative.

References

  • [MSZ, Chapter 21] Maschler, Solan, and Zamir, Game Theory. Condorcet's voting paradox; see the source block above for the precise locator.

Also in